Financial market forecasts are the private opinion of their authors. The current analysis does not constitute a trading guide. ForkLog does not assume any responsibility for the results that may arise from the use of the trading advice provided in the reviews.
The current market situation is described by trader Ilya Meshcheryakov.
The positive results of last week were almost completely leveled out today. Bitcoin managed to set a new global maximum from January 2018 at $ 14,100, but immediately followed a significant setback and at the time of writing the review the crypt currency is traded near $ 13,400.
Let us start with the technical picture – an unsuccessful attempt to break through the resistance of $13,860 could mean that there is no short-term interest in going beyond the current sideways movement.
I have already written in previous reviews that we should not wait for a sharp collapse in the drawdown scenario, as there are large positions that can only be eliminated in a long flute.
The key support area remains unchanged – only a breakthrough of $12,700-$12,800 can give a strong push to the decline. On the horizon of a few days, the price should test it again, but a true break-up is unlikely, it is more likely to be due to the crowding out of buyers who have made hasty purchases for a break-up of $14,000.
The external backdrop continues to deteriorate as all markets closed in the negative zone last week. The beginning of this week is mixed – oil prices continue to fall and stock indices are on a weak positive side.
The trend towards exit from risk assets continues and demand for safe instruments is growing. It is worth noting that this trend has been observed for several weeks now, but bitcoin looks noticeably better than the rest of the risk asset market, which may be due to the time lag and normal speculation. Or that there is really no correlation, and it was all just a coincidence.
Implementing a negative scenario could bring the first crypt currency to $12,500 just by triggering stop orders below the current trend zone. The next goal of this scenario is $12,000 as the previous resistance zone, which has not yet been tested.
It is difficult to identify targets for a positive scenario because Bitcoin has already broken through its global highs. We can only focus on the psychological mark of $15,000.
Thus, the first crypt currency is experiencing more and more problems in forming new price highs, after which strong pullbacks occur. However, Bitcoin is still above key support areas despite the negative external backdrop. My long-term forecast remains moderately negative, but it should not be realized in the form of transactions until the break-up of the $12,700-$12,800 zone.